The Odds of Winning the Lottery

Much of the talk on NPR this week focused on the odds of winning the lottery.

Some mathematicians discussed the infinitely small probability of winning. Others compared the probability of winning the lottery to the odds of dying a horrible death. And others talked about "how to improve" your chances of getting a larger prize, if you win (choosing numbers less commonly picked: numbers above 31; people pick numbers denoting birthdays).

However, for all the talk about the rationality or irrationality of playing the lottery, no one mentioned what I think it's the most reasonable thing to do.

It is clear that the odds of winning the lottery are so small, that the risk will always be "excessive."

However, the "logical conclusion" implied by the guest mathematicians on NPR (never bothering to play the lottery because you're practically certain not to win) seems illogical to me, because that reduces the probability of winning, from 1 in millions, to zero.

The logical, most cost-effective decision regarding if and when to play the lottery is this:

You need to play the lottery ONCE in your life. That's it.

You need to increase your probability of winning the lottery from zero, to 1 in millions.

Then stop. The probability of winning will never increase significantly.

I took care of that years ago. :-)

Done.